Meta stock up more than 25% since Muse debut, with analysts citing AI-hardware strategy

A gain of more than 25% since the Muse announcement, with 4.5% of it booked on Thursday, means Meta's shares were already up at least 19.6% before Thursday's session began ^[1][21]. Thursday's move built from about 2.6% at the open ^[2]. The sources do not give Wednesday's close, the day Zuckerberg showed the Charm ^[3], so the split between the app and the devices is approximate.

Mizuho, which recommends buying the stock, credits the hardware. "Meta Connect 2026 more explicitly attached Muse AI as a killer app fused deeply into the hardware strategy, from AR glasses and extending into Muse Charm, a dedicated keychain-like device providing rapid access to Muse," its analysts wrote, adding that Meta's AI advances will continue "to drive multiple expansion in Meta shares" ^[15][16].

The usage data measures something narrower: how well Meta sells a new app to people it already reaches. Apptopia estimated 642,000 US daily active users in Muse's first 12 days, about 2.8 times ChatGPT's 231,000 at the same stage ^[11][22]. More than 95% of those early adopters were also Facebook users, and 63% used Instagram ^[12].

Distribution is the odder part. Zuckerberg has spent years trying to end Meta's reliance on Apple, a sore point since Apple's 2021 privacy change limited ad targeting, and the Charm is his latest attempt ^[13]. Muse's launch ran through Apple's US App Store, where it passed ChatGPT for the top free spot ^[6].

The devices are early. Zuckerberg said Meta still needs to finalize the "finishing material" and "laying out the components" before the Charm can ship for the holidays ^[5]. Meta is targeting December and has not announced a price ^[4]. The new VR Glasses will cost $1,299 next year, $1,000 more than the $299 Quest 3S and about 4.3 times its price ^[7][20]. Meta never found a big market for VR after renaming itself five years ago ^[14].

"Why would I carry another device?" Anthony Ferry, chief executive of the e-commerce company Wayvia, said after watching the presentation ^[17]. "If I still have to pull out my phone to finish the job or fix the order, it's just another thing to charge," he said ^[18]. Anshika Jain, an analyst at Counterpoint Research, sees the appeal. "At the core is the Muse AI agent, which is designed to understand context and take actions in a faster way rather than just responding to queries," she said in an email ^[19].

Muse's business model is simpler than its hardware. Meta plans to offer it free for a large number of tokens and charge a small transaction fee on certain activities ^[8]. It is also adding connectors for retailers including Walmart and Best Buy ^[9]. A per-transaction fee is earned on an iPhone as readily as on a pendant ^[8].

If the Charm sells through the holidays, Meta gets a channel Apple does not control ^[13]. If it stalls the way VR did, Muse can still grow on phones and on the smart glasses Meta already sells with EssilorLuxottica ^[10], and the stock would lose little. The bad case is that Muse's growth slows once the Facebook cross-sell is used up ^[12]. In my view the second outcome is the likeliest, because the rally is measured from the app's launch and the devices have had two sessions to register in it ^[1][3]. Mizuho's counter is that app and hardware cannot be priced apart, because the agent is "fused" into the devices ^[15]. I would be wrong about the audience if Muse's daily users keep compounding while the share who already use Facebook falls well below 95% ^[12].