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Science Independently confirmed2 publishers 3 min read Published

An inherited EGFR variant carried 62-fold lung cancer odds among never-smokers

Risk this large has been hard to measure because the variant is so rare, and the estimate exists because a consumer genetics cohort held 641 carriers when two major biobanks held 21. A CT screening trial is now running.

The Scientist · Science desk

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What happened

  • A study published Sept. 17 in Science reports that never-smokers carrying the inherited EGFR T790M variant were 62 times likelier to develop lung cancer than nonsmokers without it.
  • All of Us held 19 people with the variant and the UK Biobank held two, while the consented 23andMe cohort held 641, enough for reliable statistical analysis.
  • Carriers clustered among participants born in the Southeast, and in Alabama, Mississippi and Tennessee the variant appeared in 1 of every 2,078 people who contributed data.
  • Carriers were diagnosed with lung cancer about five years earlier than non-carriers on average, and a clinical trial of CT-based screening in carriers is now under way.

Why it matters

  • Who has to decide decision Chanock said the open question is when and how often carriers should be scanned, and whoever answers it sets the start age and interval for a group that smoking-based eligibility never reaches.
  • What it limits constraint Untargeted genotyping would mean testing about 15,850 people to find one carrier, so the number of carriers a health system ever identifies depends on having a narrower trigger for the test.
  • What's now possible capability Risk estimates for variants this rare now depend on cohorts assembled by a consumer testing company, and they inherit that cohort's restrictions, here European ancestry and voluntary enrollment.
  • Who's exposed exposure Relatives of known carriers and never-smoker families with lung cancer histories become candidates for a test that Amos said also changes treatment decisions for patients who already have cancer.

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Across the whole cohort, smokers and nonsmokers together, carriers had about 25 times the odds of a lung cancer diagnosis. That average hides an odd internal structure. Put the strata on one scale, with a nonsmoker who lacks the variant as 1. Smoking alone sits at 4, a never-smoking carrier at 62, and a carrier who smoked at 11 times other smokers, which is about 44 against the same baseline. Two risks multiplying would have predicted 248. Carriers who smoked came out lower than carriers who never did. The subgroup counts are small, and the published accounts do not report confidence intervals or absolute risks, so 44 against 62 does not establish that smoking is neutral in a carrier.

The frequency figures need care too. The reported carrier rate covers more than 3 million participants of European ancestry. Divide the full 3.3 million consented cohort by the 641 carriers found and you get roughly 1 in 5,150. That is about three times as common as the reported rate, so the two numbers do not share a denominator. Everyone counted bought a consumer genetic test and consented to research use, and the main analysis was restricted to European ancestry. The 62-fold estimate has not been shown to hold in other ancestries.

The geographic pattern came from where participants were born. The researchers traced the variant to settlers from the British Isles who arrived in the early 1700s, and to families who later moved into southern Appalachia and stayed relatively isolated, passing it down within the area. In Alabama, Mississippi and Tennessee it runs about 7.6 times the overall rate.

Stephen Chanock, who directs the National Cancer Institute's Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics and was not involved in the study, said the concentration of carriers may help explain the Southeast's elevated lung cancer rates. About 20% of adults in Appalachia report smoking, against 16% of adults elsewhere in the US, and the two factors may interact. A study of genotype and birthplace cannot apportion the region's excess between a founder variant and a higher smoking rate.

Current eligibility for annual low-dose CT is drawn from smoking history. "The prevalence of the T790M variant and its impact on lung cancer risk has previously been poorly understood," said Chris Amos, a genetic epidemiologist at Baylor College of Medicine who was not involved in the work. He called the result a "very important finding". Amos said the earlier age at diagnosis means screening needs to start earlier and to proceed regardless of smoking status.

How much of the never-smoker problem this explains is a separate question. Chanock said the variant is rare enough that it likely does not account for a large percentage of overall lung cancer cases. STAT reported experts saying it likely plays a role in only a small portion of never-smoker cases. The variant showed no link to any other type of cancer or to noncancerous lung conditions. The odds ratios describe diagnoses; mortality under earlier scanning is a different measurement. STAT also reported that among people diagnosed with lung cancer, the share who never smoked has been increasing.

What to watch

  • Confidence intervals and absolute risks for the subgroup estimates when the Science paper is read in full.
  • The design of the CT screening trial in carriers, and whether its endpoint is mortality or stage at diagnosis.
  • Whether the 62-fold estimate replicates outside a European-ancestry, self-selected consumer genetics cohort.

Clarity's read

What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.

Reality

Evidence70
Adoption22
Hype gap+8
Incentives45
Confidence66
Why these scores

Claim ledger

Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.

  1. [1]

    A study published Thursday, Sept. 17, in the journal Science identified an inherited mutation in the EGFR gene, called EGFR T790M, that greatly increases lung cancer risk, including in people who have never smoked.

    Reported SupportedView cited source
  2. [2]

    People who had never smoked and who carried EGFR T790M were 62 times more likely to develop lung cancer than nonsmokers without the mutation.

    Reported SupportedView cited source
  3. [3]

    On average, people with the mutation had about 25 times the odds of developing lung cancer compared with people without it, a figure that includes both smokers and nonsmokers.

    Reported SupportedView cited source
  4. [4]

    Researchers analyzed DNA and health data from over 3.3 million people who used 23andMe's at-home genetic testing kits and consented to research use of their personal data.

    Reported SupportedView cited source
  5. [5]

    Given that the mutation is relatively rare, it likely does not account for a large percentage of overall lung cancer cases, according to Dr. Stephen Chanock, director of the Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics at the National Cancer Institute, who was not involved in the study.

    Reported SupportedView cited source
  6. [6]

    Amos argued it is important to test whether a patient has the mutation when they have a family history of lung cancer in nonsmokers, or when relatives are known to have the mutation, and said having T790M also affects treatment decisions for people who already have cancer.

    Reported SupportedView cited source
  7. [7]

    Experts said the variant likely only plays a role in a small portion of never-smoker lung cancer cases, STAT reported.

    Reported SupportedView cited source
  8. [8]

    The research provides further evidence that never-smoker lung tumors can be tied to distinct risk factors, which may require thinking differently about screening programs and treatment strategies, STAT reported.

    Reported SupportedView cited source
  9. [9]

    People who smoked but did not carry the mutation were four times likelier to develop lung cancer than nonsmokers, so the mutation alone carried a higher risk than smoking.

    Reported SupportedView cited source
  10. [10]

    Among study participants who smoked and carried the mutation, T790M increased cancer risk 11-fold compared with other smokers.

    Reported SupportedView cited source
  11. [11]

    The study included over 3 million people of European ancestry, and the mutation showed up in 1 out of every 15,850 people.

    Reported SupportedView cited source
  12. [12]

    All of Us and the UK Biobank, two of the largest public genetic databases to date, contained just 19 and two individuals with T790M respectively, while the 23andMe cohort included 641 carriers, enough to run reliable statistical analyses.

    Reported SupportedView cited source
  13. [13]

    "The prevalence of the T790M variant and its impact on lung cancer risk has previously been poorly understood."

    Reported Supported Source: Chris Amos, genetic epidemiologist at Baylor College of Medicine, who was not involved in the studyView cited source
  14. [14]

    Amos called the result a "very important finding".

    Reported Supported Source: Chris Amos, Baylor College of MedicineView cited source
  15. [15]

    T790M was not linked to any other type of cancer or to noncancerous lung conditions.

    Reported SupportedView cited source
  16. [16]

    The mutation was much more common among participants born in the Southeast, especially Alabama, Mississippi and Tennessee, where it showed up in 1 out of every 2,078 people who contributed data to 23andMe.

    Reported SupportedView cited source
  17. [17]

    Researchers think settlers from the British Isles first brought the mutation to the U.S. in the early 1700s, and that families with it later moved to southern Appalachia, where relative isolation meant the variant was passed down repeatedly and became unusually common.

    Reported SupportedView cited source
  18. [18]

    Certain populations with a history of smoking are recommended to get screened annually for lung cancer using low-dose CT scans.

    Reported SupportedView cited source
  19. [19]

    A key question, Chanock said, is when and how often people with the T790M mutation should be screened.

    Reported SupportedView cited source
  20. [20]

    People with T790M developed lung cancer about five years earlier than people without the mutation, on average.

    Reported SupportedView cited source
  21. [21]

    That finding highlights the "need to begin screen[ing] at an earlier age and irrespective of smoking status", Amos said.

    Reported Supported Source: Chris Amos, Baylor College of MedicineView cited source
  22. [22]

    A clinical trial is now under way to evaluate CT-based lung cancer screening in people with the mutation.

    Reported SupportedView cited source
  23. [23]

    Among people diagnosed with lung cancer, the prevalence of nonsmokers has been increasing, according to STAT.

    Reported SupportedView cited source
  24. [24]

    The 641 carriers reported within the 3.3 million consented cohort imply a frequency of about 1 in 5,150.

    Derived Supported
  25. [25]

    The cohort-wide implied frequency is about three times the reported carrier rate of 1 in 15,850.

    Derived Supported
  26. [26]

    The relative risk for never-smoking carriers is about 15.5 times the relative risk associated with smoking without the variant.

    Derived Supported
  27. [27]

    Carriers who smoked had roughly 44 times the odds of a nonsmoker without the variant.

    Derived Supported
  28. [28]

    A purely multiplicative combination of the two risk factors would have predicted about 248 times the baseline odds for a carrier who smoked.

    Derived Supported
  29. [29]

    The 23andMe cohort held about 30 times as many carriers as All of Us and the UK Biobank combined.

    Derived Supported
  30. [30]

    The carrier rate in Alabama, Mississippi and Tennessee is about 7.6 times the overall reported rate.

    Derived Supported
  31. [31]

    At the reported frequency, finding one carrier by untargeted genotyping means testing about 15,850 people.

    Derived Supported
  32. [32]

    The concentration of people with T790M in the Southeast may help explain why the region experiences elevated lung cancer rates, Chanock said.

    Reported InsufficientView cited source
  33. [33]

    Approximately 20% of adults in Appalachia report smoking, compared with 16% of adults elsewhere in the U.S., so it is possible the two factors interact.

    Reported InsufficientView cited source

Sources

2 independent publishers whose own reporting we read for this story.

  1. livescience.com

    1 article · September 17, 2026

    Scientists identify rare genetic mutation that dramatically raises risk of lung cancer in nonsmokers
  2. statnews.com

    1 article · September 17, 2026

    STAT+: Why do ‘never smokers’ get lung cancer? In some cases, rare genetic variant may be a factor

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